Евро может упасть до 33 рублей

Соотношение евро к доллару на валютном рынке FOREX впервые с марта 2009 г. опустилось ниже 1,25. Во второй половине дня евро подешевел до $1,2444, рекордного минимума с ноября 2008 г. На фоне обвала европейской валюты золото подорожало а 1,4%, достигнув исторического максимума в $1249,4 за унцию.

На прошлой неделе участники рынка говорили, что важным рубежом сопротивления станет отметка 1,27, но ее рынок вчера «проследовал без остановки». Все сейчас работают в режиме негатива по Европе: Германия выставляет жесткие требования по кредитованию Греции и непонятно, смогут ли греки их выполнить, считает предправления банка «Открытие» Василий Заблоцкий. Пока идет дискуссия, состояние неопределенности и нервозности оставляет игрокам два варианта: либо играть против евро, либо просто продавать евро, присоединяясь к основному тренду на фоне положительных сигналов из Америки, так что следующий ориентир — $1,2 за евро, полагает он.

«Никто не хочет держать евро из-за страха и неопределенности», — сказал «Ведомостям» валютный стратег UBS Джеффри Ю.Банк только что обновил свой прогноз по единой европейской валюте и полагает, что к концу этого года она достигнет отметки в $1,15, а к концу 2011 г. — $1,1. По мнению стратега, о недоверии ЕЦБ речи пока нет, инвесторы боятся и не обращают внимания на фундаментальные факторы.

«Греция — лишь катализатор, это не самая критичная проблема в Европе, по сравнению, например, с Испанией и Италией, — отмечает начальник отдела коверсионных операций на международных рынках Промсвязьбанка Андрей Скабилин. — Европа давно жаловалась на дорогую валюту, и иногда происходящее похоже на игру достаточно больших сил — хотя наверняка утверждать, что это играют именно европейские денежные власти, нельзя».

Падение евро на 5% не катастрофа, евро вводился на уровне 1:1 к доллару и после этого падал до 0,9, а последовавшее за этим ослабление доллара стало во многом спасением для экономики США — так что Европе жаловаться не на что, говорит Заблоцкий. Однако, по его мнению, понятно, что власти Еврозоны в конце концов обязательно договорятся и тренд изменится. Разговоров о паритете евро к доллару пока не идет, согласен Скабилин.

08:30, 17.05.2010 г. — VestiRegion.ru

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